The Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin has taken a spectacular fall, shedding $2 billion from the token’s market cap over the past week.
Once hailed as the financial embodiment of the MAGA movement, TRUMP has tumbled from $7.07 billion to $5.07 billion. Despite Donald Trump’s return to office fueling early speculation, the token has struggled to maintain its meteoric rise.
Currently changing hands at $25.39, the token is down 27.58% this week and 8.23% in the past 24 hours, wiping out $500 million in a single day. So, what’s going on? Did the meme machine finally run out of steam, or is this just a classic case of “shake out the weak before mooning”?
The rise and fall of TRUMP token
Donald Trump’s Official Trump token stormed onto the scene on January 18, 2025, promising to revolutionize the intersection of crypto and political memorabilia. The market embraced it with the kind of enthusiasm typically reserved for discounted red hats and golden escalators.
TRUMP skyrocketed to $75.35 within 24 hours of its release, breaking into the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. For a brief, glorious moment, it looked like the world had finally found the perfect fusion of political iconography and financial degeneracy. But then came the fumble, Trump himself admitted he “didn’t know much” about crypto.
Like a hype-filled balloon punctured by the sharp edge of reality, TRUMP started to deflate. By January 31, 2025, despite the announcement that some pro-Trump websites would accept it for merchandise purchases, the token had crumbled to $25.39.
Where does TRUMP go from here?
Right now, TRUMP is caught in the descending parallel channel of doom, a classic technical formation that suggests one of two things: more sideways chop before either a face-melting breakout or a soul-crushing plunge.
Support level at $13.45 is the line in the sand, Resistance at $39.14 – If TRUMP miraculously reverses course, this is where it needs to break to make degens believe again.
Technical indicators aren’t exactly singing TRUMP’s praises, either. On the one-day chart, both the Exponential Moving Average (10-day) at $30.47 and the Simple Moving Average (10-day) at $29.22 are flashing SELL signals.
Total TRUMP supply
And then there’s the big, fat, neon-lit red flag. A single wallet controls 80% of the total TRUMP supply. Let that sink in.
This is less decentralization, more financial dictatorship—a single entity essentially holds the fate of the TRUMP token in its hands. If that wallet decides to market dump, TRUMP could spiral faster than a conspiracy theory on a fringe internet forum. If it holds, however, the game remains in play.
Pseudonymous trading analyst BagCalls, commenting on X, suggested that TRUMP might be on the verge of a significant move lower.
“$TRUMP looks like it’s about to break lower. Would nuke memes/retail in the short term but probably net positive,” he noted.
This statement implies that a sharp correction could shake out speculative retail investors who bought into the hype without a clear understanding of market cycles. In the long run, this could stabilize TRUMP’s price action by allowing stronger hands to accumulate at lower levels, potentially setting the stage for a more sustainable rally.
While the Trump-branded token remains a high-risk asset, its future hinges on several factors. If adoption for merchandise payments grows and Trump himself pivots toward a more pro-crypto stance, TRUMP could regain some bullish momentum. However, the combination of declining hype, technical weakness, and concentrated ownership presents considerable downside risks.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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