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On “Markets Daily,” host Jennifer Sanasie chats with Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts.com, about crypto market structure, altcoin performance, and his near-term performance outlook for bitcoin.
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This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “Markets Daily” is executive produced by Jared Schwartz and produced and edited by Eleanor Pahl, alongside Senior Booking Producer Melissa Montañez. All original music by Doc Blust and Colin Mealey.
Audio Transcript: This transcript has not been edited and may contain errors.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Let’s talk about what’s going on in the markets this morning. Everything is in the green if you head on over to coindesk.com right now, unpack what’s happening for us.
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
Yeah, if we start with bitcoin, then I think there is actually not too much going on. I mean, it’s a very quiet weekend, very quiet. Last two months, I’d say, you know, the, after we had that break, and we discussed it here on the channel above that $31k level, we got that job, and the progression towards $48,000. And that’s where we met resistance. And I think since the last two months, we’ve been trading, you know, if you look at a weekly chart, you would see a range between roughly $40k On the downside, and then $48k was that little spike on the upside. And we’ve been trading in that range ever since. If we zoom in a little bit more, I think the range can be a little bit more narrow, defined as between $40 and $44k. And that’s where we’ve been pretty much since like the 10th of January. So from a technical point of view, I’m actually waiting for bitcoin to get out of that range. And given the overall structure of the charts, the longer term up moved a series of higher highs and higher lows that’s still in place. I’m actually watching for a break above $44,000. And if that happens, I’m eyeing the next level at $48,000. So that’s the meet my near term outlook for bitcoin to me.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
You say near term, what’s the timeline on that?
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
That would be a couple of weeks. I mean, you know, bitcoin, it could happen overnight. I mean, it’s very hard to put a timeframe on anything crypto related, but you know, like, call it an educated guess I’d say this, this can all unfold in the next weeks. But don’t be surprised if it happens this week, you know, it is totally possible. The point is that if we take out $44,000. It means that we are sort of unlocking a new a new wave of upside potential which will lead to $48,000. That’s a pretty important level because at $48k we had a massive a lot of sellers coming in a lot of supply coming in and that’s why it pushed down. So if we are able, you know, once we pass $44 and we’re looking for $48, once we can get past 48, I think that is for the longer term, a really important level because then the next level is $65 which is the all time high of bitcoin. So we’re in pretty, I’m not gonna say crucial, but pretty important levels as we speak right now.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Julius, do you think that we’ll hit that all time high or beyond this year?
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
Yes, I think so. It’s I don’t know, it’s a difficult question. But if you put a gun to my head, I’d say yes, I think, I think it’ll happen.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
I didn’t put a gun to your head.
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
No and I did that myself, you know. But no, I mean, the underlying share we had we had this massive sell off and you see that you know the market’s getting more to live bitcoin ETF big thing that’s kind of out of the way right now is was looming over the market. I don’t think it was a massive event. If you look at the flows, I mean, there’s there’s all of a sudden there’s 20 bitcoin ETFs. Where did that happen? There’s quite some money that went into that. But there was also I mean, the Grayscale was already there, but it’s now converted into an ETF. So that’s not really new inflow, but the inflow and I read some reports recently that there was also quite a bit of outflow. So net net, there was some inflow but not as massive but what I think is that be because there are now so many more ways for investors to participate in the crypto market in bitcoin over time, I think that will gradually progress. I mean, people relate an ETF as way less risky than a straight participating in crypto and bitcoin. So overtime I think that’ll that’ll progress further will attract a little bit more inflow and maybe also some bigger institutions are now you know, can get over the hurdle like it’s not dangerous, you know, there is a there is ETFs. ETFs, by definition are regulated. That’s also a big thing, of course, for these people. So, over a year, and the year is still very long, you know, we only have one month, you asked me, Can we go past that all time high level? I think the answer is yes.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Julius, it’s only been one month but it feels like much longer. I gotta tell you, let’s let’s move from bitcoin and talk about altcoins now. Altcoins have really had their time in the spotlight. LINK, Solana, AVAX, to name a few have been performing very well, in recent weeks. What altcoins Have you been watching?
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
Yeah, so you know, I use my relative rotation graphs, because I can then I can then look at an entire universe of altcoins. And the interesting thing is, if you if you look at those origins, right now, on your put all these altcoins expressed in the U.S. dollar, you will see all of them starting to pick up again. So bitcoin right now and over the last two weeks, was really leading altcoins were underperforming bitcoin, on the daily scale that now seems to be coming back again. So altcoins seem to be coming back in U.S. dollar terms. If I bring it all to bitcoin, so I’m going to express the altcoins in bitcoin and we can see the relative strength of the altcoins versus bitcoin, of the ones that you just mentioned, I think Chainlink, LINK-USD is the one that really stands out, that’s a really a really strong performer. And on the other hand, one that is, to me, at least very disappointing, is, is Ripple. XRP is going right opposite of Chainlink, so there’s quite a bit going on. And if you look at it from the bigger picture, there is no generic way to describe the performance of altcoins because in terms of bitcoin, they’re they’re quite spread out, they’re not all moving in the same direction. Sometimes you see, all these altcoins outperforming bitcoin, or they are all are underperforming bitcoin, but right now they’re quite spread out over the universe. And as I said, Chainlink doing really well. Ripple, not so much. Dogecoin not so much. And also Moneiro is rolling out of favor. So it’s, you got to be picky in altcoins right now, that’s I guess that’s the message that I want to convey here.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Tell me a little bit more about the analysis behind XRP’s underperformance.
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
You know, I’m a technician. So I look at I look at the charts. And what I see is that Ripple is just not able to keep up with bitcoin, but also not able to keep up with other altcoins. And that causes it that causes the relative performance of Ripple to deteriorate. And, you know, supply and demand that’s that’s probably the best answer. People are looking elsewhere and Chainlink right now. And I you know, this is only a very limited group of altcoins. There’s obviously you can do way more and way deeper analysis into that, but right now, I think chain link is the one that is maybe everybody’s looking at. We had Solana a couple of weeks ago that was like in the spotlight that seems to be slowing down right now. It had its time. Chainlink seems to be coming here right now. And Ripple is out of favor. So you know, from a trading point of view, I’d be watching Ripple to start curling back up and pick up relative strength and maybe swap, you know, out of out of Chainlink back into Ripple. There’s so many options when you trade cryptos to do that kind of trades.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
All right. And we do have to wrap in just a moment, but I haven’t asked you about ether yet. A lot of folks are saying this year maybe the year for ether with the upcoming spot ether ETF set for a decision in May. What are you seeing when you look at ether?
JULIUS DE KEMPENAER:
The trend for ether or is to underperform bitcoin so if you look at bitcoin expressed an ether, it’s a very gradually up sloping line for bitcoin and that that implies that bitcoin is outperforming ether and it’s actually doing that in a very nice, regular trend with at the moment, no signs of a reversal. So for the time being, I gotta stick with bitcoin over ether.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Julius, thanks so much for joining “Markets Daily today.” That was stockcharts.com Senior Technical Analyst Julius de Kempenaer and thanks for joining today’s show.
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