Bitcoin rebounds from $103K following geopolitical volatility. ETF inflows and a flip in the 180-day OI delta suggest a potential local bottom.
Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, a spike in crypto market volatility briefly pushed Bitcoin below $104K. However, a bullish rebound from a crucial support trendline has lifted BTC back above the $105K mark.
Could this short-term recovery and derivatives market signals indicate a local bottom, driving Bitcoin to a new swing high?
Bitcoin Price Analysis
On the 4-hour price chart, Bitcoin shows a bullish failure to sustain momentum after briefly crossing above the $108,000 mark. A pullback on Tuesday saw BTC test levels below $103,000.
However, a long lower wick on the price candle reflects strong buying pressure, pulling Bitcoin back up from the local support trendline. As of now, BTC trades above the $105,000 level, hinting at a possible trend reversal.
Technical indicators, however, offer mixed signals. The MACD and signal lines are trending downward below the zero line. On the other hand, the RSI shows a temporary surge in bullish momentum, approaching the mid-level.
Immediate resistance for Bitcoin stands at $107,015, followed by a recent peak at $108,681.
Bitcoin ETFs Accumulate Amid Turbulent Market Conditions
Despite the decline in Bitcoin’s price, institutional support continues to strengthen. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of positive inflows.
On June 17, the daily net inflow reached $216.48 million, led by BlackRock’s $639.19 million. This inflow offset outflows from three major ETFs: Fidelity with $208.46 million, ARK and 21Shares with $191.40 million, and Bitwise with $22.84 million.
As of June 17, total net assets held in U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs amount to $128.18 billion, accounting for 6.18% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
180-Day OI Delta Turns Red, Signaling a Local Bottom
Amid rising institutional activity, a recent tweet from Alphractal, a crypto data analytics platform, highlights that the 180-day Open Interest (OI) Delta has turned negative. This indicates that more leveraged positions have been closed than opened over the past six months.
The largest contributors to this decline are Bitget with -$7.42 billion and CME with -$3.93 billion. In contrast, Gate.io stands out with a $3.2 billion increase, showing behavior counter to most other platforms.
Historically, a negative OI Delta has often coincided with local bottoms.
In 2021, the metric flipped red as Bitcoin traded between $31K and $41K, just before the run to its $69K all-time high. Similarly, in 2023 and 2024, negative OI deltas aligned with local bottom formations.
However, there are exceptions. In 2022, a sharp decline in OI marked the deepest point of the bear market.
Essentially, if the OI Delta turns positive again, it could signal a bullish reversal. But if the reduction persists, it may point to continued downside pressure.
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