Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, has updated his estimate to 90% or higher for many spot crypto ETFs to gain approval in 2025, citing the increased engagement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a positive signal.
According to the table shared by Balchunas, the approval probability for spot ETF applications of major crypto assets such as Litecoin, Solana and XRP has increased to 95%. This rate is estimated to be 90% for Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR and Avalanche. The fact that the SEC largely considers these assets as “commodities” and that they have futures regulated by the CFTC is also among the factors that increase their chances of approval.
The approval probability for SUI and Tron (TRX) seems more uncertain. In particular, while the approval rate for SUI is evaluated as 60%, no probability is given for TRX as its final decision date extends to 2026.
According to the latest updated data, the approval probabilities are as follows:
- Litecoin (LTC) – 95%
- Left (LEFT) – 95%
- XRP (XRP) – 95%
- Dogecoin (DOGE) – 90%
- Cardano (ADA) – 90%
- Polkadot (DOT) – 90%
- HBAR (HBAR) – 90%
- Avalanche (AVAX) – 90%
- SUI (SUI) – 60%
*This is not investment advice.
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