A deep-dive valuation study by Valhil Capital suggests XRP could reach a fair market value from $4,813 to $9,000 by 2030.
This bold price projection draws from increasing adoption and XRP’s dual role as a transaction medium and store of value. This estimate emerges from one of the firm’s simulated models—the Athey & Mitchnick Model. Notably, this model integrates economic theory, real-world assumptions, and digital asset market behaviors to forecast XRP’s fair value.
Unlike typical transaction-based pricing models, the Athey & Mitchnick Model assigns far greater weight to XRP’s store of value function. The model explores how increased adoption of XRP for cross-border payments and foreign exchange transactions can kickstart a virtuous cycle:
First, price increases lead to more holders storing XRP, which reduces the supply available for transactions. In turn, this further fuels demand and price appreciation.
XRP Fair Values at $908, $4,813, and $9,000
According to the model, store-of-value demand could reach $530 trillion. Even a conservative adoption scenario assuming 10% of global transactions utilize XRP Ledger (XRPL) by 2030 results in the $4,813 price forecast. The mechanics behind the model include:
- $700 billion in daily transaction value
- One-second transaction speed
- 56.5 billion XRP circulating supply
- 10% discount rate
- five-year adoption horizon (by 2030)
Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis shows that if store-of-value demand reaches even higher levels, like $1 quadrillion, XRP’s price could climb well beyond $9,000 under certain assumptions. Notably, based on $100 trillion demand, the unit price of XRP could be $908.
XRP fair value under the Athey Mitchnick Model
Exponential Growth via the Virtuous Cycle Flywheel
Notably, the model focuses on what the researchers refer to as the Virtuous Cycle Flywheel. This cycle begins with increased adoption, which drives up transaction-based demand. As prices rise, users are incentivized to hold XRP, removing supply from circulation.
The reduced liquidity further drives price increases, creating a feedback loop. New use cases emerge, generating even more demand for XRP.
According to Valhil’s findings, this self-reinforcing cycle could lead to exponential price growth, especially if adoption reaches tipping points in major sectors such as global remittances and foreign exchange settlements.
Conservative Yet Ambitious
Interestingly, Valhil Capital describes the model as conservative because it excludes large-scale markets like derivatives and real estate.
However, the model does acknowledge its limitations, such as the inability to predict future use cases or the impact of CBDC adoption. Still, the outcome highlights the significant value that could be unlocked if XRP achieves mass adoption.
With the bold targets, Valhil Capital’s simulation paints a compelling vision of XRP as more than a fast payment solution but one that could become a critical digital store of value in the global financial system.
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