Mizuho Securities is a major Japanese investment banking and securities firm. It is a subsidiary of Mizuho Financial Group, one of the largest financial services companies in Japan, which also includes Mizuho Bank and Mizuho Trust & Banking.
On 12 April 2024, Dan Dolev, a senior research analyst at Mizuho Securities, joined CNBC’s “The Exchange”, where he provided a detailed and somewhat critical perspective on the cryptocurrency market, mainly focusing on Bitcoin and Coinbase.
Dolev expressed significant skepticism about Bitcoin’s role and stability as an investment vehicle. He questioned whether Bitcoin behaves more like a growth stock or a store of value, ultimately suggesting that it currently operates like the latter but without any substantial foundational support.
Dolev was quite direct in his criticism of Bitcoin, highlighting a lack of intrinsic value and yield support that could sustain its long-term price. He stated:
- On Bitcoin’s viability: “Right now, it’s doing well, but I still think that longer term it has no yield support. It’s basically just FOMO, and I think eventually it’s going to go down.”
- On Bitcoin’s future prospects: “I think eventually this is going to unravel … there’s really nothing there.”
- Predictions on Bitcoin’s price: “I see no value in it personally, so it probably goes back to like the 40s or 30s easily.”
Dolev touched on several key aspects of Coinbase’s current business situation and future outlook. He acknowledged the strong trading volumes recently observed but expressed concerns about the sustainability of this trend and the overall health of the business:
- On Coinbase’s recent performance: “The call today is basically, look, I mean volumes have been strong. I mean we said that the HODLers have won, they won Q1l so the volumes were just so strong.”
- On the revenue forecast: “Consensus is underestimating, you know, what they’re going to put out in terms of revenue by 40%. We had to take up our revenue estimates and EBITDA, and just to be fair, we had to take up our price target, but we still see massive downside from where the stock trades today.”
Dan Dolev also briefly talked about gold in the context of comparing it to Bitcoin and other investment vehicles: “Gold has probably been around… I personally believe more in real estate… but yeah, I guess gold… we’re used to it, people can, you know, we have like a predisposition to like it.”
Dolev also commented on the latest bank earnings, noting some weaknesses, particularly in the area of deposits. He observed a trend where customers are moving away from zero or low-interest products to higher-yielding options like CDs. This shift poses challenges for traditional banks but creates opportunities for fintech firms.
He specifically mentioned SoFi, praising its strategy of increasing personal loans, which he believes could significantly boost its profitability and stock performance. Dolev is optimistic about fintech’s potential to outperform traditional banks, especially as they offer higher yields and innovative products without the need for physical branches.
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