The final deadline for the first spot Ethereum ETF is Wednesday, May 23. This is when the SEC will approve or deny VanEck’s application.
The Ark 21Shares spot ETH ETF application deadline is on the following day, Thursday, May 24, but what happens Wednesday will set the tone for the rest of the issuers.
Other issuers waiting for a decision from the US regulator include Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity.
Approval Odds Not Looking Good
On May 20, ETF Store President Nate Geraci observed that the SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and the S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch.
He added that it was “technically possible” for the regulator to approve the 19b-4s and then “slow play” the S-1s, especially given the lack of engagement with issuers.
SEC decision deadline this week on spot eth ETFs…
SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) & S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch.
Technically possible for SEC to approve 19b-4s & then slow play S-1s (esp given reported lack of engagement here).
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) May 19, 2024
A 19b-4 is the filing that a national securities exchange, like the NYSE or Nasdaq, submits to the SEC when it wants to change rules or introduce new products, such as spot ETH ETFs.
The S-1 is the initial registration form required for new securities offered to the public that provides the agency and potential investors with detailed information about the company’s business operations and products.
SEC delay tactics can be used to “further evaluate the market conditions or the specific structures of these ETFs without outright denying the applications,” explained industry observer “Gronky” on X.
Just five SEC Commissioners are set to vote on whether to approve or deny VanEck’s ETF on Wednesday. Gary Gensler, who voted in favor of approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, is among them.
The other four are crypto-friendly Commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda and anti-crypto Caroline Crenshaw and Jaime Lizárraga, so it could come down to Gensler’s vote again.
ETH Price Outlook
If the SEC approves the VanEck fund on Wednesday, ETH prices are likely to pump in the short term. However, the general consensus is that the SEC will reject them.
One analyst said that the Ethereum bottom was already in and eventually spot ETFs will be approved even if they are denied this week.
$ETH monster run incoming?
Ethereum ETF decision on the 23rd May.
I expect it to get rejected ✖️
BUT I think the $ETH bottom is already in
Ethereum will get an ETF and the market knows it.We are going to see a crazy run in Ethereum in the coming months as $BTC halving is… pic.twitter.com/gzzq3Xbr68
— Dippy.eth (@dippy_eth) May 19, 2024
Fellow analyst “Mister Crypto” said that the bearish rejection scenario was already priced in, a sentiment echoed by other crypto traders and analysts.
A surprise approval could catch people off guard, however. ETH prices are slightly down now to just under $3,100. SEC approval could result in a quick upside move to resistance at $3,500 and potentially beyond.
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