How close is the current “Bitcoin cycle” to its bull market peak? History suggests it could be closer than most think.
Lead Glassnode analyst James Check showcased a chart on Monday comparing Bitcoin (BTC)’s price action over the last three years to that of other Bitcoin epochs after touching their respective all-time highs.
The Bitcoin Cycle Top, According To Glassnode
By Check’s measure, Bitcoin is effectively in the same position it was back in December 2020. At the time, the asset had just cracked its all-time high above $19,600 originally registered on December 12, 2017 – a 36-month wait – and would blast to $64,000 within just a few months.
Bitcoin is in a very similar position today: roughly 35 months after peaking in April 2021, the asset has rebounded to a high of $74,000 in March 2024. It even experienced a brief pullback last week as long-term holders took money off the table, reminiscent of 20% to 30% price pullbacks in prior cycles.
“The reason I use April is that’s when bear market sentiment set in, and thus recovery duration should be measured from that point,” explained Check.
Bitcoin’s price technically hit its highest price in 2021 at $69,000 in November. However, Glassnode has previously noted how Bitcoin’s true “peak” was in April 2021 from an on-chain behavioral perspective, when long-term holders began selling their coins en masse towards the top, much like in prior cycles.
Earlier this month, Check noted that this selloff is already underway this year. At the time. Long-term holders were distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month, compared to 319,000 BTC and 836,000 BTC during major market expansions in 2019 and 2021 respectively.
Where Is Bitcoin Heading Next?
According to the analyst, even Bitcoin “shrimp” – investors with less than 1 BTC – are starting to sell their coins despite diligently accumulating and HODLing throughout the bear market.
Nevertheless, Check has expressed confidence in the state of the market, calling it one of the most “robust” bull markets in history. “Chopsolidation and some bull crabbing is the most probable outcome for weeks to months imho,” he tweeted on Sunday.
The analyst predicted this year that Bitcoin will top $250,000 per coin by the end of its current bull cycle.
Bitcoin’s price surged over 4% on Monday to more than $70,000, bouncing back from a pullback last week coupled by large outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Interestingly, outflows from the ETF don’t seem to have slowed on Monday, tallying $350 million.
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