Bitcoin’s rally is hitting a wall, and the numbers are lining up for a big correction in the next month. October saw the global money supply hit a peak of $108.5 trillion, pushing Bitcoin to its record $108,000 high.
But here’s the twist: over the last two months, the money supply has dropped by $4.1 trillion, now sitting at $104.4 trillion—its lowest since August. Historically, Bitcoin lags behind money supply by about ten weeks.
If that pattern holds, prices could sink by as much as $20,000 in the weeks after president Donald Trump’s inauguration. Analysts are pointing to Bitcoin’s current phase as a mid-top correction—a pattern seen before in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Those phases led to monster bull runs, but first came the pain. And it looks like this one could sting, especially with predictions that even before inauguration, Bitcoin might drop 30%.
Panic selling hits markets and Bitcoin ETFs bleed out
Panic is spreading beyond crypto. U.S. equity funds just posted outflows of $50.2 billion in the week ending December 18. That’s the biggest exodus since 2009. Large-cap funds lost $20.9 billion, wiping out six weeks of gains.
Small-cap, multi-cap, and mid-cap funds weren’t spared either, losing $5.4 billion, $3.9 billion, and $2.9 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the volatility index ($VIX) just posted its second-largest daily jump in history. The market is on edge, and Bitcoin’s caught in the middle of it.
Leveraged long positions in Bitcoin got crushed, pushing prices down to $92,000 by mid-December. The weekend gave bulls a little breathing room, with a rebound to $99,500 on Bitstamp. Coinbase buyers tried to claw prices back to six figures, but institutional players staying on the sidelines made the recovery look shaky. The optimism didn’t last.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) felt the heat too. December 20 brought nearly $300 million in net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took the hardest hit, logging its largest-ever outflow at $72.7 million. Investors are bailing, and fast.
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