Bitcoin is on course to break two historic records within the next few hours as it trades around $70,800. Bitcoin, which uses universal standard time, is hours away from closing its highest monthly candle ever, up 13% on 2021’s record.
While bitcoin hit an all-time high of $68,900 in 2021, it never closed a monthly candle above $61,400. Twice it broke the $60,000 psychological resistance, once between March and April and again between October and November. However, on neither occasion was the top digital asset able to hold above this critical level.
On the monthly chart, the thick part of the candle denotes the opening and closing prices, while the thin ‘wicks’ show the full range of the price movement during the period. A green candle indicates a month where the price ended higher than it started – so the bottom of the candle is the open, and the top is the close. A red candle shows the opposite, where the price at the end of the month was lower than at the start.
In March 2021, bitcoin closed at $58,800 after a monthly high of $61,700, then in April, it closed $100 lower, around $58,700, even though it reached a new all-time high of $64,700 earlier in the month.
Following a 55% drawdown to $29,000, bitcoin recovered by the year’s end to again break new all-time highs in October and November. However, bitcoin closed well below the new record peak in both months, down 8.5% and 17%, respectively.
In 2024, bitcoin has smashed through all previous highs and this month reached $73,640, almost 7% beyond the 2021 peak. Last month bitcoin closed around the 2021 level at $61,100, so at current prices and any monthly close above $61,400 will be a new monthly record.
As bitcoin looks prime to lock in a monthly close above $70,000, it will also achieve seven monthly green candles in a row for the first time in over 12 years. In 2012, bitcoin had seven green months, rising 152% over the period. Yet, during its current run, which started in September 2023, bitcoin has soared over 170%, marking its strongest seven-months ever.
Past months also saw bitcoin making a new all-time high before a halving event for the first time. Previous cycle highs have occurred mid-way through a halving cycle, never this deep in. The influx of capital from bitcoin ETFs and the resulting strain on its fixed supply has had a definitive impact on the price.
Historically, bitcoin has started its bull season after a halving event, but the past seven months suggest it has come early. Whether the upcoming cycle will reveal a new pattern in a post-ETF bitcoin world is yet to be seen. However, two bitcoin records in one month less than 30 days from the halving is unprecedented, setting up a bullish path to the start of the next four-year cycle.
It is prudent to remember that past performance never indicates future returns, as with all investments. Bitcoin has a unique makeup, but price discovery relies on market forces like any other asset.
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