Bitfinex anticipates that the upcoming US presidential election could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price beyond its all-time high of $73,666, in its latest report.
The report identifies several factors contributing to this outlook, including a surge in Bitcoin options activity, seasonal strength in the fourth quarter, and the “Trump trade” narrative—linking a potential Republican win with a favorable market impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Options premiums and implied volatility for Bitcoin are projected to peak around the election, with volatility expected to reach 100% on November 8.
This environment suggests heightened price fluctuations, but positions Bitcoin well for a potential rally should sentiment align favorably.
Bitfinex notes a record-breaking open interest in Bitcoin options, particularly those set to expire on December 27, with the $80,000 strike price capturing significant attention.
The report highlights that Bitcoin recently demonstrated resilience, rebounding from a 6.2% intra-week correction and maintaining a 30% gain since a September dip to $52,756.
This momentum is supported by Bitcoin’s historical seasonality in Q4, particularly during halving years, where Bitcoin has historically posted strong gains. The report points out a median Q4 return of 31.34% in these years.
The report also touches on increased institutional interest in Bitcoin. Emory University recently disclosed an investment in Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust and Coinbase shares, signaling a shift toward broader institutional acceptance of digital assets.
Additionally, Microsoft’s upcoming shareholder meeting in December will consider a proposal to explore Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
If approved, even a modest allocation from Microsoft’s $76 billion cash reserves would further bolster Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a corporate asset.
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