In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, James Check, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, shared his predictions and insights into the Bitcoin market. He suggested that we’re on the cusp of entering the second, more explosive phase of the current bull cycle, referred to as “the euphoric bull.”
James Check explains that we are transitioning into the euphoria phase of the Bitcoin market, characterized by a significant price rise until the supply re-enters the market to meet demand. This phase is marked by long-term holders ramping up spending, a classic signal observed in every previous cycle.
Check also mentioned that the forthcoming phase would be characterized by growing excitement among participants, leading to heightened volatility. He noted that a surge in Bitcoin’s media coverage is expected to drive up demand.
Comparing the current bull market’s corrections to those of past cycles, Check notes its remarkable resilience. He says that despite expectations based on historical data, the market has experienced relatively mild corrections, especially when contrasted with the dramatic pullbacks of previous years. This resilience is attributed to various factors, including the influx of spot Bitcoins ETFs and the rapid recovery from the lows witnessed in late 2022.
According to the Glassnode analyst, on-chain analysis differs from traditional technical analysis by focusing on transaction volumes, profit and loss movements, and the behaviors of different types of holders (e.g., whales, long-term holders). This approach provides insights into the market’s dynamics beyond mere price and volume patterns, revealing the psychological underpinnings of market participants’ actions.
When asked about the potential peak price for Bitcoin in this bull cycle, Check emphasizes the inherent unpredictability of the market. He argues that focusing on specific behaviors and patterns, such as the saturation of supply against demand and the behavior of long-term holders, is more informative than speculative price predictions.
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