Can BTC Hold the $104K Pivot Amid Bearish Pressure?

The Bitcoin price today is struggling to stay above the $105,000 mark after rejecting lower support near $104,200. The latest daily structure shows BTC trapped in a corrective flag formation, while the broader trend remains intact above key higher-timeframe Fibonacci levels.

What’s Happening With Bitcoin’s Price?

Following the June 13 breakdown below $106,000, the Bitcoin price has been consolidating in a narrowing range, with resistance at $106,000 and support at $104,000. On the daily chart, BTC is sitting at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($105,485), trying to form a higher low above the 0.618 zone near $104,291. Price action remains neutral, though the latest candles suggest indecision.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The 4-hour chart shows BTC bouncing within a micro-channel, caught between demand at $103,150 and resistance near $105,400. The volume profile indicates major interest clustered between $104,200 and $105,800, where Bitcoin has been ranging throughout the week.

Bitcoin Price Action Faces Resistance From Cloud and EMA Cluster

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC continues to struggle below a critical confluence zone formed by the 20/50/100 EMA band and the Keltner Channel midline on the 4-hour timeframe. The Bitcoin price action faces supply between $105,800 and $106,300, which also aligns with the flat Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen from the Ichimoku Cloud.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Stochastic RSI is currently hovering near the overbought zone (85–86), which signals potential exhaustion. Unless BTC reclaims $106,300, this rebound could be short-lived.

Momentum remains capped, and the Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling declining Bitcoin price volatility. This setup increases the likelihood of a breakout or breakdown move in the coming sessions.

Why is the Bitcoin Price Going Down Today?

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The Bitcoin price is slightly lower today as market participants react to overhead resistance at $105,800 and weak demand at the $106,000 level. The MACD on the 30-minute chart has turned bearish again, while RSI shows a short-term rollover from the 52–53 range back to 45.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Directional Movement Index (DMI) on the 30-minute chart indicates weak trend strength. The +DI and -DI lines are crossing frequently, and ADX is below 25, suggesting a lack of clear trend direction. With Bitcoin price spikes getting sold off quickly, traders remain cautious heading into the weekend.

If BTC fails to break and close above $106,000 in the next 12–24 hours, the likelihood of a revisit to $103,000–$104,000 strengthens.

Short-Term Outlook: Can BTC Retest $107K or Slide Toward $102K?

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Price structure shows BTC forming a symmetrical triangle, with a potential breakout point near $105,400. If bulls manage to push beyond this level with volume confirmation, the next upside target lies at $107,000, followed by $108,150 (Fib 0.382 on daily).

However, failure to hold $104,200 could trigger a drop to $103,150 and then to $101,200. The latter represents a volume-supported demand zone that may serve as a springboard if tested again.

On the higher timeframe, Bitcoin is still trading above its key bullish breakout line near $100,400 (Fib 1.0 level), which should remain a strong macro support unless sentiment deteriorates sharply.

Bitcoin Forecast Table: June 16 2025

Bitcoin remains at a decision point. Bulls must reclaim $106,000–$106,300 with conviction to shift the trend back upward. Until then, the broader bias remains neutral with downside risk toward $103,000 if momentum stalls.