Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal pointed out that cryptocurrency markets are currently repeating the cycle from 2017.
Pal said that a similar scenario is currently playing out, recalling that in 2017, Bitcoin showed a steady rise throughout the year and gained sharply in value in December. Based on macroeconomic indicators, he noted that the current crypto bull cycle could last until the second quarter of 2026.
Pal gave important signals for investors in his conversation with Jamie Coutts, director of crypto analysis, on the “The Journeyman” program broadcast on Real Vision. “When liquidity increases, the crypto market grows, this is now a clear relationship,” said Pal, arguing that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity increased in certain periods by analyzing past data.
Coutts spoke about the new analysis models they have developed recently. These models include structures that relate Bitcoin’s price movements to the increase in global liquidity and also measure risk levels in the markets. Coutts stated that investors should pay attention not only to price estimates, but also to market behavior and leverage ratios.
Underlining developments in the Middle East in particular, Pal said that countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar are making major investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies. According to Pal, these countries are not only holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, but are also building their state infrastructure on blockchain. It is stated that systems are being developed where transactions such as driver’s licenses and land records will be managed with blockchain.
Raoul Pal said that these large-scale investments and institutional adoption are not only fueling the bull market, but also accelerating the adoption of crypto as infrastructure. “This is no longer just a speculative asset class; the foundational layers of the new internet are being built,” he said.
According to Pal’s analysis, in light of liquidity conditions and macro indicators such as the dollar index, this bull cycle is likely to continue until the second quarter of 2026. “The current cycle resembles 2017 more than 2021. This long-term cycle may be larger and more complex than previously expected,” he commented.
*This is not investment advice.
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