Analyses from analytical resource CryptoQuant identifies two signals that could show the Bitcoin bull run is close to the end.
Notably, Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $105,000 level, leaving traders uncertain about the market’s next move. While the asset remains above the $100,000 psychological barrier, the altcoin season has yet to take off, and several altcoins are still below their all-time highs.
The prevalent uncertainty has led some to speculate that the bull run may be nearing its end. However, CryptoQuant analysts believe the bull cycle is still ongoing and have identified two major signals that will indicate when the bull run is truly over.
Bitcoin Buying Engine Still Active
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently stated that the current Bitcoin bull cycle is not yet finished. He pointed out that demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors remains strong, particularly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
#Bitcoin bull cycle isn’t over.
The buying engine for paper Bitcoins is still running. In 2021, the downturn came two months after GBTC inflows dried up.
No need to rush calling the cyclical top until ETFs, MSTR, and institutional buying slow down. pic.twitter.com/fN1HTdyIVD
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) January 31, 2025
According to him, in 2021, Bitcoin’s market downturn came two months after inflows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) dried up. Young Ju suggested that, in this cycle, as long as ETF demand remains high, the bull run is likely to continue.
Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have been increasing their holdings since their launch in January 2024. The pace of accumulation has also accelerated since October 2024. As of now, Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately 1.163 million BTC, valued at over $123 billion. This accounts for about 5.94% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
In addition, MicroStrategy has continued its weekly Bitcoin purchases, adding to the institutional demand. Ju believes the bull run will only end when MicroStrategy purchases, ETF inflows, and institutional demand begin to slow down.
Surge in New Investors Could Signal Market Top
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, also discussed the current market conditions. He explained that Bitcoin remains in a bullish phase, but traders should start exercising caution. The analyst focused on Bitcoin held for less than six months, which indicates new capital inflows.
He noted that with every market cycle, capital inflows into Bitcoin increase. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in this cycle has led to even greater investments from both institutional and retail investors.
He expects these inflows to continue into the first half of 2025. However, if Bitcoin and altcoins experience a strong surge, attracting a wave of new investors and leading to a top in the UTXO Age Bands for less than six months, it could signal the peak of the cycle.
Notably, historical data supports this outlook. In January 2018, when these young UTXO Age Bands started dropping, the market entered a bearish phase.
Bitcoin UTXO Age Bands | CryptoQuant
A similar pattern emerged in 2021 when the UTXO Age Bands for less than six months peaked in January before declining throughout the year. If a similar sharp surge happens again, it may signal that the current bull run is close to an end.
Bitcoin Still Targets Higher Highs
Further bolstering optimism that the bull run remains intact, technical analyst Gert van Lagen highlighted a Bitcoin megaphone pattern that began forming on the two-week chart in April 2021.
📣 #Bitcoin’s 2-week megaphone pattern has broken out, targeting ~$271k.
The successful bullish retest of the upper trend line sets the stage for a cascade of fresh all-time highs. pic.twitter.com/qQdYL77gJX
— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) January 30, 2025
The structure formed when BTC dropped from its $65,000 peak nearly four years ago. Over time, price movements fluctuated within this structure, with the 2022 bear market pushing prices to the lower trendline.
However, with Bitcoin now making higher highs, it is testing the upper trendline of the megaphone pattern. Van Lagen believes that Bitcoin has broken out of this pattern and retested it, expecting a rally toward $271,000. At press time, Bitcoin changes hands at $104,988, trading flat in the last 24 hours.
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