Earlier today, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, shared his insights about the current state of Bitcoin’s market. His commentary revolves around whale accumulation—a term used to describe large-scale purchases of Bitcoin by big investors. Ki Young Ju pointed out that news of whale accumulation, which used to shake the market just two or three years ago, has now become so routine that it no longer surprises anyone. This shift, he explained, is indicative of a deeper trend: retail investors are withdrawing from Bitcoin, leaving whales as the dominant players in the market.
Ju suggested that the market’s dynamics are now largely dictated by these big players. This reality, he said, is widely recognized but not often discussed in-depth. Importantly, Ju clarified that while we are in a bull market, this is not yet a bubble. To explain, he defined a bubble as a period when the market price significantly exceeds the capital flowing in, as measured by blockchain data. At the moment, on-chain data indicates that $7 billion in weekly capital is entering the Bitcoin market—a figure that supports the current price levels.
Despite this, Ju acknowledged the possibility of corrections. He predicted that if such a drop occurs, it is unlikely to exceed 30%, and any such dip would likely be short-lived. In fact, he anticipates a strong rebound afterward, potentially with prices climbing more than 30% following the correction. He also expressed confidence that the peak of this Bitcoin cycle is still far off and challenged predictions of an imminent bear market, questioning the reasoning of those who ignore on-chain data.
Ju’s post was accompanied by a chart titled “BTC: True MVRV,” which can appear complex at first glance.
Let’s break it down in simple terms. MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value, a metric used to gauge whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued at its current price. The “Market Value” refers to Bitcoin’s total market capitalization (current price multiplied by circulating supply), while “Realized Value” calculates the value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. By comparing these two values, MVRV offers insight into market sentiment and potential price movements.
The chart plots Bitcoin’s price alongside the MVRV ratio, adjusted for coins that have been lost or untouched for over seven years (to ensure accuracy by excluding inactive coins). Here are the key zones and what they mean:
- Strong Sell Zones (Red): These are periods when the MVRV ratio is very high, often above 4. This indicates that Bitcoin’s market price is far higher than its realized value, suggesting the market is overheated. Historically, these zones have aligned with market tops, where significant price drops often follow.
- Strong Buy Zones (Green): These are periods when the MVRV ratio is very low, often below 1. These zones indicate that Bitcoin’s market price is undervalued relative to its realized value. Historically, these have been the best times to buy Bitcoin, aligning with market bottoms.
- Mid-Range Zones (Yellow): These are neutral areas where the market price aligns more closely with realized value. In these periods, the market is neither overvalued nor undervalued, reflecting balanced conditions.
Currently, the chart shows the MVRV ratio at approximately 1.8, which is above the mid-range but not yet in the “Strong Sell” territory. This suggests that while Bitcoin’s price is climbing, it is not dangerously overvalued. Historical data indicates that the market has room to grow before reaching a potential peak.
By juxtaposing this data with historical trends, Ju’s argument becomes clearer: Bitcoin’s current price movements are consistent with a healthy bull market rather than a speculative bubble.
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