Current Bitcoin Bull Run Mirrors 2015–2018 Cycle, Suggesting Further Upside

The current Bitcoin bull run is displaying similarities to the 2015–2018 market cycle, according to on-chain data from Glassnode.

The firm’s latest weekly on-chain newsletter shows that current trends of Realized Cap growth, drawdown patterns and price performance mirrors what the market witnessed in previous cycles. If history repeats, Bitcoin may still have room to rally before reaching its peak.

How Bitcoin Price Action Resembles the 2015–2018 Cycle

Glassnode’s data shows that Bitcoin’s price appreciation rate has slowed in each cycle, showing that the market is maturing. Meanwhile, one similarity with the 2015 to 2018 cycle is the current cycle’s drawdowns, which have ranged from 10.1% to 23.6%.

Notably, past cycles have experienced a period of rapid price acceleration after a slow-growth phase marked by these drawdowns. Given the market’s current position, a similar euphoric phase could soon emerge.

Another major similarity is Bitcoin’s Realized Cap growth. The Crypto Basic confirmed this month that this metric hit a new peak of $832 billion. So far in this cycle, the Realized Cap has expanded by 2.1 times, which is significantly lower than the 5.7x increase during the last cycle.

However, it matches the growth rate seen in the 2015–2018 cycle at a comparable stage. Historically, Bitcoin’s strongest price surges have occurred when the Realized Cap begins accelerating sharply, suggesting further upside potential.

Long-Term Holders Distributing to New Buyers

Glassnode further confirmed that Bull markets are typically driven by capital flowing from long-term holders to new investors. Notably, since December 2023, approximately 1.2 million BTC have moved from long-term holders to short-term investors.

This trend is similar to distribution patterns that the market observed in late 2017 and early 2021, which eventually led to continued price increases before eventual corrections. According to Glassnode, the sustainability of the current bull run will depend on whether new buyers can continue absorbing this supply.

If demand remains strong, price momentum could push Bitcoin even higher. However, if demand weakens, the market could transition into a phase dominated by long-term holders, leading to reduced volatility.

ETF Wallets Gulping Exchange Reserves

Meanwhile, in the ongoing cycle, an observable decline in Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges has triggered speculation about a potential supply shock. However, Glassnode clarified that much of this decline comes from Bitcoin moving into ETF custody wallets.

Notably, since July 2024, exchange balances have dropped from 3.1 million BTC to 2.7 million BTC. However, when this evaluation factors BTC in ETFs, total balances have remained stable at around 3 million BTC. This indicates a change in how investors hold Bitcoin rather than a shortage of available supply.

“Bitcoin Not Yet at a Cycle Top”

Further, a recent analysis from market commentator IT Tech confirms Glassnode’s report. In a CryptoQuant analysis, IT Tech examined Bitcoin’s UTXO age bands and found that while new market participants are increasing their holdings, the proportion of recently moved coins has not yet reached previous cycle peak levels.

In past bull runs, Bitcoin tops have coincided with a surge in younger UTXOs (coins moved within 1 day to 3 months). Currently, this trend is growing, but it has not yet reached the extreme levels seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This suggests that Bitcoin could still have room to rally before reaching a market top.

However, if short-term holder activity spikes significantly, it could indicate increased speculation and potential for a correction. He noted that investors should watch this metric to gauge whether Bitcoin is nearing its peak. At press time, BTC currently changes hands at $106,091, up 3.73% over the last 24 hours.