Donald Trump Jr., eldest son of elected President Donald Trump, has joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a strategic advisor.
Kalshi operates as the first and only legal prediction market in the United States under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation.
The platform offers contracts on real-world events, including elections, economic outcomes, and social topics.
Kalshi gained significant attention during the recent election, as traders utilized its yes-or-no contracts to speculate on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would win the presidency.
On the eve of the election, Kalshi bettors estimated Trump’s chances of victory at 55%—a forecast that proved accurate.
The precise prediction in such a close race reinforced the credibility of prediction markets.
Adding to the platform’s visibility, Donald Trump Jr. commented on his addition to the Kalshi team in a post on X.
“On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media,” he wrote. “I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission.”
Kalshi’s contracts often reflect real-world political and social dynamics.
One of its most active recent contracts was a yes-or-no bet on whether at least half a million immigrant deportations would occur during the first year of Trump’s administration, with bettors estimating a 53% probability.
The platform faces stiff competition from offshore operators like Polymarket, which maintains higher trading volumes but operates outside CFTC regulations.
Despite its unregulated status, Polymarket has sought to establish a compliant US marketplace, even enlisting former CFTC chair J. Christopher Giancarlo, known as “CryptoDad,” since 2022.
According to Reuters, Polymarket recorded over $3.1 billion in trading volume on presidential election bets, compared to Kalshi’s $197 million in trading on its election outcome contracts.
Kalshi has not limited its offerings to election-related contracts.
The platform has also introduced bets on unconventional topics, such as whether Donald Trump would purchase a portion of Greenland.
Another notable contract speculated on whether Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg would attend Trump’s inauguration.
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