Yesterday the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record quotation on CoinMarketCap.
CoinMarketCap is an aggregator of crypto information from various sources, therefore it does not reflect the price trend on a single exchange. It collects the trend from different exchanges and provides a representative summary of the crypto market in general.
The record quotation of Bitcoin (BTC) on CoinMarketCap
According to the data reported in the CoinMarketCap sheet on Bitcoin, yesterday the price of BTC reached an all-time high of $76,460.15.
This is the highest price ever recorded for Bitcoin.
Already the day before it had recorded a new all-time high, above 75,300$, but yesterday it was surpassed. The previous one dated back to March, and was about 73,800$, while the one from the previous cycle was about 69,000$ recorded in November 2021.
Although tonight’s record may not seem much higher compared to that of three years ago, it should be remembered that generally after the US presidential elections a bullrun is triggered that lasts for about 12 months, so it is absolutely possible that a new bullrun has just begun, and therefore from now to a year other historical highs may be recorded.
The FOMO
At this moment, a couple of days after the USA elections of 2024, there seems to be the possibility of triggering a period of FOMO.
FOMO is an acronym that stands for Fear Of Missing Out, and in financial markets, it indicates the emotion that drives speculators and investors to want to purchase an asset as soon as possible for fear of missing out on its boom.
Both on election day, November 5, 2024, and the following day (yesterday), the price of Bitcoin recorded daily increases.
According to some technical analyses, if today, for the third consecutive day, increases are recorded across the board, there would be the possibility of generating FOMO on the price of BTC.
It will probably be necessary to wait until tomorrow to have confirmation or refutation of this hypothesis, but if this actually happens, one would expect large inflows of capital into BTC for days or even weeks.
CoinMarketCap: The forecasts on the future quotation of Bitcoin (BTC)
It should still be remembered that there is no certainty, neither that FOMO is actually coming, nor on how long the upward phase might last in the event that FOMO is triggered.
This makes it impossible to make precise forecasts as of today, but there is a hypothesis that is circulating more and more insistently.
However, it is a forecast that can only come true if FOMO arrives, and therefore since there are no certainties about FOMO, there are none about this forecast either.
The hypothesis is that the price of Bitcoin could have the potential to reach the fateful $100,000 by the end of the year, or in the first half of January 2025.
It should also be added that even if a denial regarding the FOMO hypothesis were to arrive tomorrow, there would still be the possibility of a correction in November followed by a new upward phase in December. Therefore, if the FOMO does not arrive in November, it could still arrive in December.
While emphasizing once again that there is no certainty that it will arrive, if it does arrive, the scenario to keep an eye on seems to be that of 100,000$.
In the past, in similar situations, the first phase of the bullrun at the end of the year actually concluded in the first half of the following January, so if the $100,000 were to arrive, it might be easier for them to arrive at the beginning of 2025, rather than at the end of 2024.
The dollar
A key element regarding the bull run could be the US dollar (USD).
In reality, Bitcoin, when it moves on its own strength, completely disregards everything that happens in other markets; therefore, in the case of FOMO, the movements of the dollar become irrelevant. But FOMO generally has a short duration, whereas here we are talking about a process that will last for months.
At a certain point, therefore, the confrontation with the Dollar Index will become inevitable, because BTC in the medium/long term tends to be inversely correlated to DXY.
Yesterday the Dollar Index reached the highs of recent months, well above 105 points, but today it has already fallen to 104.7. The fact is that it generally rises before the US presidential elections, and then corrects for months.
This is an index that in the medium/long term moves very slowly, and the final destination for 2025 could be around 90 points, which is actually a much lower figure than the current one for such a slow-moving index.
Even a potential drop to 100 points, or even below, could significantly influence the price trend of Bitcoin (positively), and if this were to continue to 90 points during 2025, then BTC could strengthen further.
Driving Bitcoin to $100,000 could be precisely a drop in the Dollar Index below the 100 mark, and if next year this is followed by another drop to 90 points, then in 2025 BTC could also decisively break through the $100,000 barrier and go well beyond.
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