Bitcoin (BTC) could more than double its current price to reach $225,000 by the end of 2025 as regulatory clarity and institutional adoption accelerate, according to investment firm HC Wainwright.
The firm raised its price target from $145,000 in a note to investors today, implying a potential upside of over 130%.
“Based on our analysis of historical price cycles and recent price action, we predict that BTC will reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025, driven by the prospect of a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment under the new administration, the availability of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and accelerating adoption by institutional investors and corporations,” said HC Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese.
The projected price translates to a market cap of around $4.5 trillion, roughly 25% of gold’s total market cap. However, Colonnese warned investors to expect some volatility, noting that Bitcoin has historically experienced declines of 30% during bull markets.
“BTC price action is highly correlated with global liquidity (measured by M2), which has been on a downtrend since October,” Colonnese added. “We estimate that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 levels in early Q1 2025 before rebounding.”
Colonnese also highlighted a potential game-changer: the creation of a U.S. national Bitcoin reserve. The idea, first proposed by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis and later echoed by President-elect Donald Trump, envisions Bitcoin as a strategic treasury reserve asset.
HC Wainwright put the probability of the U.S. adopting such a reserve this year at 60%, which could push Bitcoin’s price “significantly above” the firm’s $225,000 target.
This year is expected to bring critical developments in crypto legislation, with investors hoping that Congress will provide long-awaited regulatory clarity. HC Wainwright predicts that this could lead to more investment in Bitcoin, including advisory allocations and public companies adding BTC to their balance sheets.
*This is not investment advice.
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