Savvy bitcoin
BTC$103,568.73
and ether
ETH$2,422.06
traders are shoring up their defenses as the broader market continues to foresee bullish price action over the summer.
That’s the message from an options-based strategy called 25-delta risk reversal, which involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call, or vice versa.
At the time of writing, risk reversals based on Deribit-listed bitcoin and ether options indicated that investors were positioning for downside volatility over the summer.
BTC’s 25-delta risk reversals for June, July, and August tenors were negative, indicating a preference for put options, which offer downside protection, over calls or bullish bets, according to data source Amberdata. In ETH’s case, puts were pricier out to the July end expiry.
Traders typically buy put options to hedge their long positions in the spot and futures markets, protecting themselves from potential price declines.
“Risk reversals in both BTC and ETH continue to show a preference for downside protection across June and September tenors. This suggests that long holders are actively hedging spot exposure and preparing for potential drawdowns,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a market note.
BTC: 25-delta risk reversals. (Deribit, Amberdata)
The nervousness is evident from the over-the-counter liquidity platform Paradigm, where the top five BTC trades for the week include a put spread and a bearish risk reversal. Meanwhile, in ETH’s case, a long position in the $2,450 put crossed the tape alongside a short strangle (volatility) trade.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has spent over 40 days trading back and forth above $100,000, according to CoinDesk data. According to analysts, profit-taking by long-term holders and miner selling have counteracted the strong uptake for spot ETFs, leaving prices directionless.
“Bitcoin has recently tracked sideways, suggesting its current price may be too high for many retail investors. Open interest in BTC options has risen, with a positive and rising 25 delta put-call skew on 30-day contracts, which may imply that market participants are seeking short-term protection through put options,” Coinbase Institutional’s weekly report noted.
On Friday, BTC closed (UTC) below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) to trade below the key support for the first time since mid-April. The breakdown may lead to more chart-driven selling, potentially resulting in a drop below $100,000.
Some observers, however, expect a rally to new record highs. According to market observer Cas Abbé, BTC’s on-balance volume continues to indicate strong buying pressure, suggesting that prices could rise to $130,000-$135,000 by the end of the third quarter.
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