The Bitcoin halving, an important event written into the cryptocurrency’s code, is two days away. This event, which occurs roughly every four years, reduces the rewards for Bitcoin miners by half. The cryptocurrency community is abuzz with anticipation ahead of the halving, especially given recent developments such as the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved crypto regulations.
The 2024 halving is expected to have ripple effects throughout the entire financial system as retail investors gain exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs. This could result in increased crypto transactions, trading volume, investment, and speculation in the space, Finance Magnates reported. According to the countdown by Binance, the Bitcoin halving event will occur in the next two days.
Following the halving, miners often experience a significant reduction in revenue. Additionally, the reduction in selling pressure can contribute to increased trading volume and price volatility in the market, Finance Magnates reported. Goldman Sachs recently cautioned investors against associating Bitcoin’s halving with price surges, Coindesk reported. This is because continued gains in price rely on strong inflows into spot ETFs and not just halving.
While previous halvings have been followed by price appreciations, Goldman has pointed out that various macroeconomic factors also played a significant role. The firm highlighted that the time taken to reach peak values in the past significantly varied. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment during past halvings differed from the current landscape, marked by high inflation and interest rates.
Bitcoin ETFs and Market Dynamics
Similarly, Goldman emphasized in a report by Bloomberg the importance of considering other factors, such as the adoption of spot ETFs, in driving Bitcoin’s price. The recent rally in BTC prices, fueled by inflows into U.S.-based spot ETFs, suggests that a significant portion of post-halving expectations may have already been priced in.
Fred Thiel, the CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc., echoed Goldman’s sentiment, suggesting that the success of ETF approvals has accelerated price appreciation typically observed after halvings. However, Thiel acknowledged the potential impact of the halving on Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and emphasized miners’ optimism towards the event.
With #BitcoinHalving just a few hours away, we can expect a volatile market. Best strategy is to either DCA into your favourite coins or just don’t touch your bags at all. Things will settle in a couple of days & after some side way action, we will start moving up, especially the… pic.twitter.com/46YEXP57N8
— Cryptonic Bull (@Cryptonic_Bull) April 17, 2024
Recently, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) experienced its own halving. After the event, the cryptocurrency forked from Bitcoin, dropped 15%. This has prompted crypto traders to reassess their expectations for an immediate price surge in Bitcoin post halving, according to Coindesk.
Bitcoin Cash, created in 2017, has historically been viewed as a measure of Bitcoin’s market sentiment. Its recent rally, followed by a sharp decline post-halving, suggests caution regarding Bitcoin’s upcoming halving.
The decline in the price of Bitcoin Cash was accompanied by the collapse in open interest for BCH futures. This trend indicates a shift in market dynamics. Additionally, negative funding rates across major exchanges reportedly underscore a potential unwinding of bullish sentiment.
Insights from Analysts and Experts
Investment banking giant JPMorgan anticipates a sell-off to $42,000 once the halving hype subsides. The impending reduction in miners’ rewards by 50% could lead to increased selling pressure, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) recently experienced a significant decline in holdings. The fund reduced by half from its trading debut in January to 309,871 BTC as of April 16, 2024, according to a report by Cointelegraph.
Since its inception, GBTC has faced a massive sell-off, significantly impacting Bitcoin prices. The reason attributed to this outflow is the high trading fees, with GBTC initially having the highest fees among US spot Bitcoin ETFs, set at 1.5%. This discrepancy in fees has prompted other ETFs to lower their fees, ranging between 0.2% and 0.4%.
In contrast, BlackRock’s IBIT offered a competitive fee of 0.25% at launch. Thus, IBIT has experienced an extraordinary surge, increasing holdings by over 10,000% since its debut. Despite the lack of direct correlation, the surge adds to the significant Bitcoin-related events.
Bitcoin ETF Landscape
Overall, the collective holdings of the ten spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in the US reached approximately 862,162 BTC, valued at $54.7 billion as of April 16, 2024. While the decline of GBTC and the surge of IBIT dominate headlines, other ETF providers have accumulated significant holdings, contributing to the dynamic landscape of Bitcoin investments.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining profitability has experienced a significant downturn of 75% over the past three years. According to Stocklytics.com, profitability dropped from March 2021 to March 2024.
This trend is attributed to various factors, including the rising costs associated with mining operations and the impact of halving events on miners’ rewards. The metric used to measure Bitcoin mining profitability is the hash price, denoted in dollars per terrahash (USD/TH). This metric is influenced by several factors, including the price of Bitcoin, transaction fees, network complexity, and block subsidies.
Despite Bitcoin’s price surges in the past, mining profitability has been on a steady decline, with diminishing returns becoming increasingly evident. Bitcoin mining operations face numerous challenges that impact profitability. Energy consumption is a significant concern, with the process consuming vast amounts of electricity annually.
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