Bullish Structure Holds Above $106K Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Historical Cycles

Bitcoin remains in focus as it trades near $107,000, sparking debate on whether the next major rally is approaching. Market participants are closely watching price behavior and key technical levels to determine if history will repeat with a 2013-, 2017-, or 2021-style bull run.

With historical RSI peaks marking explosive gains, traders and analysts are now speculating on whether Bitcoin could multiply from its current levels, possibly reaching $200,000 or more.

PlanB’s Power-Law Model Points to a 5-10x BTC Rally

PlanB, the analyst known for the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, argues that Bitcoin continues to follow its long-term powerlaw trend. This model historically signaled major bull cycles, with price jumps of 100x, 10x, and 4x in previous cycles.

As per PlanB’s framework, Bitcoin may be primed for a 5–10x increase from current levels, aligning with the S2F target range. If the model holds, this could point to a cycle top between $500,000 and $1,000,000 although that remains speculative.

Related: Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders Show Record Conviction and Are Not Taking Profits

Significantly, RSI levels have yet to flash the extreme overbought signals seen in earlier cycles. If RSI crosses 80 again, it would mark renewed euphoric conditions commonly referred to as the “red dot” phase. Hence, many believe that this cycle’s true blow-off top has not yet occurred.

Short-Term Price Action and Key Support Zones

According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin recently failed to breach the $110,000 resistance. This rejection prompted a short-term correction toward $107,000, where it now tests a critical support zone. The analyst points to $106,000 as the level to hold. If this support remains intact, the uptrend could resume soon.

Related: Analysts See Bitcoin Upside as China Injects Trillions and Trade Deal Progresses

Liquidity pools lie below $105,500, and any breach could trigger further downside. In contrast, reclaiming $110,545 could trigger acceleration toward new all-time highs. With geopolitical tensions flaring between the U.S. and Iran, risk assets like Bitcoin may face headwinds, while safe havens like gold benefit.

Psychology of BTC Rally: When Will Early Holders Stop Selling?

Adding another layer to the analysis is the behavior of early investors. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley emphasized that current sell pressure stems from early Bitcoin adopters.

These investors, having entered at far lower prices, are locking in profits around the psychological $100,000 level. However, he expects this pressure to fade as Bitcoin climbs past $130,000.

According to Horsley, once Bitcoin crosses into the $130K–$150K range, selling may subside dramatically. Consequently, this could open the door for a more sustainable rally, possibly setting the stage for the next leg higher.