XRP has experienced considerable volatility over the past 24 hours, primarily triggered by Judge Analisa Torres’ decision to deny motions in the ongoing Ripple v. SEC lawsuit.
This ruling, a significant development in a case that has loomed over the token for years, has contributed to a sharp market reaction, with nearly $5 billion erased from XRP’s market capitalization.
However, the crypto market appears to have largely priced in this outcome, as evidenced by stabilizing trading patterns and a lack of further significant sell-offs in the immediate aftermath.
With only a few days until July 1, a deeper analysis of XRP’s price dynamics, technical indicators, and fundamental developments provides valuable insight into its potential trajectory and performance in the first half of 2025.
XRP price analysis
Currently, XRP trades at $2.09, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.73 billion, a market cap of $123.46 billion, and a market dominance of 3.76%.
XRP’s current price action reveals a mixed outlook. The token is trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a bearish signal that suggests potential challenges in regaining upward momentum in the near term. Additionally, XRP has recorded only 13 green days in the last 30 (43%), indicating inconsistent short-term performance.
The impending unlock of 1 billion XRP tokens on July 1, part of Ripple’s programmed escrow releases, introduces another layer of complexity. With a yearly inflation rate of 6.45% and a fully diluted valuation of $208.79 billion, this token unlock could exert downward pressure on the price, particularly if market sentiment remains cautious.
Historically, Ripple’s escrow releases have had mixed impacts, with some unlocks absorbed smoothly due to pre-existing market expectations and others contributing to temporary price dips.
Data says XRP sentiment is at 17-day high
According to data analytics platform Santiment:
“XRP sentiment is currently at a 17-day high, in terms of positive vs. negative commentary. This has happened after a $50M settlement between Ripple & the SEC was stalled.”
Assuming current trends and the market’s absorption of the SEC ruling continue, XRP is likely to trade around $2.00–$2.10 on July 1, with the token unlock and DEX adoption acting as key swing factors. In particular, XRP is likely to consolidate between $2.08 and $2.11 in the lead-up to July 1, barring significant news.
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